drop rate question

[phil]

I'm trying to get the dragon's claw. it's ratio is 1/46 with my yellowbows. If i put off my NGC, will it restart the count?If not, Does it mean that the NGC knows how many enemy i kill? PHIL

[Armok]

Its basic statistics

Chance after Kill first dragon 1/46
Kill second dragon drop rate 1/46
Kill third dragon drop rate 1/46

Over all chance 3/46 as killed 3 dragons

Each tiem you kill the dragon its a 1/46 chance the probabilty does not decrease for each dragon killed. Just the probable overall chance of you finding the Dragon claw if you kill X dragons is higher X/46

[Polar]

On 2004-03-16 03:50, Armok wrote:
Its basic statistics

Chance after Kill first dragon 1/46
Kill second dragon drop rate 1/46
Kill third dragon drop rate 1/46

Over all chance 3/46 as killed 3 dragons

Each tiem you kill the dragon its a 1/46 chance the probabilty does not decrease for each dragon killed. Just the probable overall chance of you finding the Dragon claw if you kill X dragons is higher X/46



This is why I want to do a binomial theory guide ^_^. This would mean your chance after killing 46 dragons would be 46/46 - a certain chance. It's not.

Chance of NOT getting the claw = 45/46.
Chance of getting NO claws after killikng x dragons = (45/46)^x.
Chance of getting one or more claws after killing x dragons = 1 - ( (45/46) ^ x)

[Armok]

Ok heres the scope

Its based on statistics. Do A levels/collage mathamatics to learn about this stuff in detail

The chance of you not getting a Dragon Claw after 46 dragons is:

45/46 or 97.8% (the chance of not getting a claw)

To the power of 46 (the number of total dragons killed)

The answer to this equation is around 36% chance of no drop after 46 dragons.

Yep I know about that rubbish polar I do study sciences at university

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Armok on 2004-03-16 04:14 ]</font>

[Cc08]

The drop rates are just a general guide... each time you go in to fight the dragon you get a 1/46 chance... it does not change no matter how many times you fight him... so basically every time you go in its like rolling a 46 sided di and hoping to get the side for dragon's claw

[heyf00L]

You know, it's just a guide to gauge rarity. It's true that you shouldn't think "After 46 kills I will have one." But remember that as you approach infinity kills the drop rate will get more and more accurate.

[Polar]

On 2004-03-16 09:29, heyf00L wrote:
You know, it's just a guide to gauge rarity. It's true that you shouldn't think "After 46 kills I will have one." But remember that as you approach infinity kills the drop rate will get more and more accurate.

...and yet, all those kills still won't make the next drop any more likely http://www.pso-world.com/psoworld/images/phpbb/icons/smiles/icon_biggrin.gif don't you just love this game?
...weeell, actually yes... but hey *shrugs*